2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Texas Tech | Playoff contender | +14.5±7.9 | 9 11 | 10.2 | +27.6 |
| 8 |  Utah | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +11.2±7.9 | 7 10 | 9 | +22.2 |
| 18 |  BYU | Bowl team | +7.3±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.8 | +15.9 |
| 28 |  Arizona | Bowl team | +4.8±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.2 | +12 |
| 33 |  Iowa State | Bowl team | +3.5±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.3 | +9.9 |
| 36 |  TCU | Bowl team | +2.6±7.9 | 5 9 | 6.9 | +8.3 |
| 40 |  Houston | Bowl team | +2±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.4 | +7.4 |
| 42 |  Kansas State | Bowl team | +1.7±7.9 | 5 9 | 7 | +7 |
| 56 |  Cincinnati | Bubble | +0.2±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.2 | +4.5 |
| 58 |  Kansas | Bowl team | -0.1±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | +4.1 |
| 60 |  Arizona State | Bubble | -0.2±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.2 | +3.9 |
| 71 |  Baylor | Bubble | -1.7±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 76 |  UCF | Bubble | -3.3±7.9 | 4 8 | 6.1 | -1.2 |
| 93 |  West Virginia | Rebuild | -6.8±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.7 | -6.8 |
| 96 |  Colorado | Rebuild | -7.8±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.3 | -8.3 |
| 121 |  Oklahoma State | Rebuild | -12±7.9 | 2 5 | 3.7 | -15.1 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).