Projection = the player's per-game median this season; floor/ceiling = the 15th/85th percentile of their ACTUAL game-by-game results (real variance, not an assumed model). In-season this updates with recent form and the opponent's defense vs the position.
| # | Player | Proj | vs D | Floor — Ceiling | TD/g | car/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashton JeantyBoise State | 189 | — | 128 228 | 2.07 | 26.7 |
| 2 | Cameron SkatteboArizona State | 147 | — | 62 179 | 1.62 | 22.5 |
| 3 | Bryson DailyArmy | 138 | — | 115 152 | 2.67 | 24.3 |
| 4 | Omarion HamptonNorth Carolina | 133 | — | 94 194 | 1.25 | 23.4 |
| 5 | Tahj BrooksTexas Tech | 128 | — | 119 162 | 1.55 | 26 |
| 6 | Kaleb JohnsonIowa | 127 | — | 73 178 | 1.75 | 20 |
| 7 | RJ HarveyUCF | 127 | — | 88 181 | 1.83 | 19.3 |
| 8 | Dylan SampsonTennessee | 124 | — | 89 143 | 1.69 | 19.8 |
| 9 | Mario AndersonMemphis | 118 | — | 43 151 | 1.38 | 18.2 |
| 10 | Bhayshul TutenVirginia Tech | 115 | — | 54 132 | 1.36 | 16.6 |
| 11 | Quinton CooleyLiberty | 111 | — | 68 156 | 1.18 | 18.6 |
| 12 | Devin NealKansas | 109 | — | 69 125 | 1.33 | 18.2 |
| 13 | Tre StewartJacksonville State | 108 | — | 52 201 | 1.79 | 19.9 |
| 14 | DJ GiddensKansas State | 108 | — | 67 157 | 0.58 | 17.1 |
| 15 | Bryson WashingtonBaylor | 106 | — | 26 158 | 1.09 | 15.9 |
| 16 | Kyle MonangaiRutgers | 106 | — | 81 148 | 1.18 | 23.3 |
| 17 | Ahmad HardyUL Monroe | 104 | — | 59 183 | 1.08 | 19.8 |
| 18 | Makhi HughesTulane | 100 | — | 58 154 | 1.07 | 18.9 |
| 19 | Corey KinerCincinnati | 98 | — | 69 131 | 0.33 | 17 |
| 20 | Jo'quavious MarksUSC | 97 | — | 66 127 | 0.75 | 16.5 |
| 21 | Jordan JamesOregon | 97 | — | 49 117 | 1.07 | 16.6 |
| 22 | Keyon MozeeMiami (OH) | 96 | — | 24 114 | 0.29 | 12.7 |
| 23 | Marquez CooperSan Diego State | 96 | — | 84 120 | 1 | 24.3 |
| 24 | Anthony Tyus IIIOhio | 95 | — | 30 130 | 0.69 | 18.2 |
| 25 | Isaac BrownLouisville | 93 | — | 36 147 | 0.85 | 12.7 |
| 26 | Brashard SmithSMU | 92 | — | 63 127 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 27 | Demond ClaiborneWake Forest | 90 | — | 58 130 | 0.92 | 19 |
| 28 | Kalel MullingsMichigan | 90 | — | 23 129 | 1 | 15.4 |
| 29 | Tyler HuffJacksonville State | 88 | — | 40 167 | 1.07 | 16.2 |
| 30 | Rahjai HarrisEast Carolina | 87 | — | 44 130 | 0.85 | 15.8 |
| 31 | Anthony HankersonOregon State | 86 | — | 54 133 | 1.25 | 19.3 |
| 32 | Kanye UdohArmy | 86 | — | 31 144 | 0.83 | 13.8 |
| 33 | Al-Jay HendersonBuffalo | 86 | — | 23 129 | 0.69 | 15.7 |
| 34 | Garrett GreeneWest Virginia | 86 | — | 28 92 | 0.55 | 12.1 |
| 35 | Devon DampierNew Mexico | 86 | — | 44 152 | 1.58 | 13 |
| 36 | Le'Veon MossTexas A&M | 84 | — | 66 116 | 1.11 | 13.4 |
| 37 | Blake HorvathNavy | 84 | — | 44 142 | 1.36 | 13.7 |
| 38 | Nicholas SingletonPenn State | 84 | — | 40 104 | 0.8 | 11.5 |
| 39 | Micah BernardUtah | 82 | — | 39 125 | 0.33 | 16.4 |
| 40 | George PettawayJames Madison | 82 | — | 49 96 | 0.38 | 12.5 |
Floor/ceiling = 15th–85th percentile of the player's actual game-by-game results this season (real variance). Not a market prop quote. Source: CollegeFootballData box scores.