Projection = the player's per-game median this season; floor/ceiling = the 15th/85th percentile of their ACTUAL game-by-game results (real variance, not an assumed model). In-season this updates with recent form and the opponent's defense vs the position.
| # | Player | Proj | vs D | Floor — Ceiling | TD/g | att/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle McCordSyracuse | 355 | — | 323 404 | 2.62 | 45.5 |
| 2 | Cameron WardMiami | 346 | — | 266 401 | 3 | 34.9 |
| 3 | Jaxson DartOle Miss | 323 | — | 249 407 | 2.23 | 30.6 |
| 4 | Chandler MorrisNorth Texas | 314 | — | 202 441 | 2.58 | 42.4 |
| 5 | Shedeur SandersColorado | 310 | — | 249 398 | 2.85 | 36.7 |
| 6 | Garrett NussmeierLSU | 304 | — | 256 363 | 2.23 | 40.3 |
| 7 | Miller MossUSC | 293 | — | 222 330 | 2 | 40.2 |
| 8 | Billy EdwardsMaryland | 289 | — | 204 332 | 1.36 | 38.2 |
| 9 | Dillon GabrielOregon | 286 | — | 218 301 | 2.14 | 31.9 |
| 10 | Josh HooverTCU | 286 | — | 248 364 | 2.08 | 36.2 |
| 11 | Fernando MendozaCalifornia | 282 | — | 212 334 | 1.45 | 35.1 |
| 12 | Carson BeckGeorgia | 278 | — | 172 365 | 2.15 | 34.5 |
| 13 | Behren MortonTexas Tech | 274 | — | 209 361 | 2.25 | 38.6 |
| 14 | Seth HeniganMemphis | 272 | — | 199 329 | 1.92 | 36.7 |
| 15 | Tyler ShoughLouisville | 270 | — | 205 336 | 1.92 | 32.4 |
| 16 | Katin HouserEast Carolina | 269 | — | 97 311 | 2 | 27.2 |
| 17 | Jordan McCloudTexas State | 268 | — | 156 321 | 2.31 | 29.9 |
| 18 | Ethan GarbersUCLA | 267 | — | 170 291 | 1.45 | 33 |
| 19 | Rocco BechtIowa State | 266 | — | 201 278 | 1.79 | 32.6 |
| 20 | Joey AguilarApp State | 266 | — | 215 312 | 2.09 | 35.5 |
| 21 | Caden VeltkampWestern Kentucky | 262 | — | 150 301 | 1.92 | 29.9 |
| 22 | Noah FifitaArizona | 262 | — | 161 296 | 1.5 | 35.8 |
| 23 | Kurtis RourkeIndiana | 260 | — | 186 352 | 2.42 | 26.7 |
| 24 | Nick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee | 260 | — | 206 288 | 1.33 | 34.8 |
| 25 | Cade KlubnikClemson | 258 | — | 208 310 | 2.57 | 34.7 |
| 26 | Walker EgetSan José State | 256 | — | 40 390 | 1.18 | 29.8 |
| 27 | Spencer PetrasUtah State | 255 | — | 155 370 | 1.89 | 36.3 |
| 28 | Jake GarciaEast Carolina | 254 | — | 181 298 | 1.33 | 30.2 |
| 29 | Owen McCownUTSA | 254 | — | 192 348 | 1.92 | 35.9 |
| 30 | John MateerWashington State | 254 | — | 177 360 | 2.42 | 28.9 |
| 31 | Sawyer RobertsonBaylor | 253 | — | 184 326 | 2.33 | 30.7 |
| 32 | Kevin JenningsSMU | 251 | — | 140 307 | 1.64 | 27.2 |
| 33 | Will RogersWashington | 250 | — | 155 288 | 1.27 | 28.3 |
| 34 | Connor BazelakBowling Green | 250 | — | 170 305 | 1.38 | 30.9 |
| 35 | Eli HolsteinPittsburgh | 248 | — | 113 322 | 1.7 | 29 |
| 36 | Jalen KitnaUAB | 248 | — | 233 379 | 2.12 | 39.5 |
| 37 | Sam LeavittArizona State | 246 | — | 156 284 | 1.85 | 26.9 |
| 38 | Will HowardOhio State | 246 | — | 203 306 | 2.19 | 26.4 |
| 39 | Brayden SchagerHawai'i | 244 | — | 174 277 | 1.73 | 36.7 |
| 40 | Maalik MurphyDuke | 244 | — | 208 306 | 2.17 | 35.1 |
Floor/ceiling = 15th–85th percentile of the player's actual game-by-game results this season (real variance). Not a market prop quote. Source: CollegeFootballData box scores.